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Can India feed the world during the Ukraine war?

COLOMBO; Last week, Indian PM Narendra Modi told US President Joe Biden that India was ready to ship food to the rest of the world following supply shocks and rising prices due to the war in Ukraine. Modi said India had “enough food” for its 1.4 billion people, and it was “ready to supply food Can India feed the world during the Ukraine war?

Sri Lanka’s Ceypetco raises fuel prices to minimize losses; removes limits

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state-owned Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (Ceypetco) raised fuel prices from the mid night of Monday (18) to minimize the losses after sharp rupee depreciation and high global oil prices.

It also removed a fuel rationing policy it implemented last week to limit the volume of fuel supply at pump to ensure fair and efficient distribution.

The latest price hike will see the price of mostly used Octane 92 rising by 33.1 percent to a record 338 rupees a litre while auto diesel jumping by 64.2 percent to 289 rupees, in par with the prices of Lanka IOC, the Indian Oil Corporation unit .

Since the central bank on March 7 announced a flexible exchange rate, the rupee has fallen nearly 70 percent to around 340 rupees. The Lanka IOC raised prices thrice since the central bank’s decision to allow flexible exchange rate, though the Ceypetco has increased only once.

The move came after thousands of motorists turned to Ceypetco as Lanka IOC prices were expensive. Some Ceypetco filling stations ran out of fuel, as a result.

Ceypetco chairman Sumith Wijesinghe on April 11 said the state-owned fuel retailer was losing between 800 to 1000 billion rupees a day as it was losing 110 rupees per litre of diesel when it was sold at 176 rupees and 52 rupees for a litre of petrol when it was priced at 254 rupees.

The Lanka IOC has been raising fuel prices in line with the global market price, but Ceypetco, under pressure from the government, was not allowed to raise prices because such move would be make the ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) unpopular.

Sri Lanka is facing its worst economic crisis since the independence from the British colonial rulers in 1948. The island nation last week announced a “preemptive default” on its sovereign debts.

The government is facing strong protests from both public and opposition parties for mismanagement of economic policies. A youth-led protesters have spearheaded a campaign, demanding President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his government to resign due to their failure.

A severe shortage of fuel was seen in the last few weeks because the Ceypetco also has to supply for power generation amid extended power cuts as high as 13 hours in some days.

When prices are not raised and losses are financed with bank credit, which in turn is re-financed by the central bank through its 13.5 percent window, inflation goes up. The money printed to finance losses also creates forex shortages.

The dollar shortage has led to a lack of fuel and extended power cuts, crippling many industries related to manufacturing and transport, and disrupting the country’s economic activities. (Colombo/April 19/2022)

Sri Lankan President admits suspending chemical fertilizer was a mistake –...

COLOMBO (News 1st); Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa admitted that failure to deliver chemical fertilizer to the local farmers was also a mistake, and measures have been taken to deliver chemical fertilizer to the farmers at present. The President said he believes Sri Lanka should have approached the International Monetary Fund much earlier, given the Sri Lankan President admits suspending chemical fertilizer was a mistake – President

Sri Lanka to strengthen state finances, reduce money printing: Treasury secretary

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka is planning to strengthen public finances and reduce money printing to stabilize the economy Treasury Secretary Mahinda Siriwardene said ahead of beginning discussions with the International Monetary Fund.

Secretary Siriwardene said a circular to cut current spending will be issued immediately.

Money Printing

In April 125 billion rupees was printed taking the central bank’s outright Treasury bill stock to 1,853 billion rupees, from 1727 billion rupees at the end of March.

Finance Minister Ali Sabry told parliament on April 07 that 123 billion rupees of salaries and festival advances had been paid by April 06.

When state workers spend the money, and appropriate the goods on shelves or fuel at pumps, there is no foreign exchange to import goods and re-stock the shelves, as the money had been created through central bank credit.

Meanwhile Siriwardene told reporters that state finances will have to be strengthened to reduce money printing.

He will issue a circular to all spending agencies to cut spending (spending based consolidation).

“Problems in public finances are a cause of many problems in the country,” Siriwardene said. “We have to carefully manage resources and reduce the budget deficit.

“There had been a lot of discussion about the money issued by the central bank. That is happening because of problems in public finances.

“There is not enough revenues. We cannot get foreign loans. So the entire amount is financed domestically. There are limited domestic resources. So the next step is to go the central bank and get it.”

“What we have to do is reduce the demands made for the central bank to buy Treasury bills. It is difficult to do it in the present circumstances. So we have to strengthen state finance. That is what we want to do in the future.”

Flexible Instability

However analysts have pointed out that the central bank created a currency crisis in 2018, when then Finance Minister Managala Samaraweera raised taxes because money was printed under flexible inflation targeting and output gap targeting.

Unless laws are brought to force the central bank to operated consistent single anchor monetary framework (a hard peg with reserves or clean floating rate without reserves) analysts say the country would continue to have external instability, inflation and social unrest as it had for 72 years.

Analysts have blamed flexible inflation targeting, peddled by Washingon-based Mercantilists, coupled with output gap targeting (stimulus) for worsening anchor conflicts of a reserve collecting soft-peg and driving the country to default and monetary meltdown, that was not seen even during a 30-year war.

Under flexible policy and two currency crisis, the government sovereign bond holdings went up from 5 billion US dollars to 14 billion as forex shortages were created, and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation also accumulated dollar loans for exactly the same reason.

In 2018 the CPC borrowed dollars despite having a price formula due to forex shortages flexible inflation targeting/outgap targeting. When the rupee collapsed it made a forex loss of 80 billion.

This year CPC’s forex losses are estimated at over 250 billion rupees and climbing.

After printing money and creating forex shortage Sri Lanka is now borrowing from India for oil as the CPC borrowed dollars from state banks in the past. However state banks can no longer give dollar loans to the CPC and are themselves in difficulties.

Repeating Crises

The central bank was set up in 1950 abolishing a currency board (fixed exchange rate) which could not print money to create high levels of inflation or trigger balance of payments deficits.

In 1950 when the central bank was set up it had 190.4 million dollars of reserves (11.5 months) inherited from the currency board. Money printing began from the next year when the Federal Reserve tightened policy rates following a battle with the US Treasury.

In 1952 and exchange control law was brought as reserves fell to 163 million dollars. By 1953 after more money printing reserves fell to 114.3 million dollars and there was a ‘hartal’. After two years of money printing and reserve losses and inflation people are on the streets today.

Siriwardene said fiscal consolidation would be a part of discussions with the International Monetary Fund.

Asked whether value added tax would be raised to 15 percent he said, specifics of fiscal reforms would be made known later.

No decision was taken to halt domestically financed capital projects as of last week, Siriwardene said responding to reporters.

Domestically finance capital projects are an important part of imports, which take away foreign exchange from energy and medicines when money is printed usually to pay state salaries.

Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe had hike the policy rate to 14.5 percent and allowed Treasury bill rates to go up.

Last week the Treasury bill yield went up to 23 percent, which Weerasinghe said was an ‘overshoot’.

High yields bring more money to debt markets, help finance the deficit and state worker salaries, reduce private credit and can help stabilize the external sector and eventually interest rates.

Sri Lanka’s Finance Minister Ali Sabray, as well as the Treasury Secretary and Central Bank left for Washington on Saturday night. Discussions are expected to begin this week with the IMF and the World Bank.

Unless laws are brought to control stimulus and the economists who want to maintain unstable intermediate regimes, Sri Lanka will remain a top customer of the IMF and doomed to monetary instability, critics say.(Colombo/Apr18/2022)

Sri Lanka stagnant for 7-year in output gap, flexible inflation targeting

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka has experienced 7 year of stagnation triggering three currency crises under ‘flexible’ inflation targeting, a failed attempt at operating a domestic anchor driven monetary policy despite having a reserve collecting peg.

Per capita gross domestic product recovered to 3815 US dollars in 2021, according to data from the state statistics office, after a Coronavirus pandemic depressed output to 3,695 dollars per persn in 2020.

The per person GDP in 2021 is lower than the 3,821 dollars recorded in 2014.

Sri Lanka is now in the midst of the most severe monetary instability triggered in the history of the island’s Latin America style central bank set up in 1950 with built in anchor conflicts.

Independent analysts and classical economists had warned for several years that a monetary meltdown and external default was inevitable under un-anchored monetary policy and the International Monetary Fund had also warned of the possibility of an economic implosion in 2022.

Un-anchored monetary policy

Sri Lanka began to follow discretionary or flexible policy where anchor conflicts explode into currency crises as money is printed under a data driven framework which intensify anchor conflicts shortly after 2015.

Under data driven flexible inflation targeting, rates are cut and money is printed as soon as inflation falls and private credit picks up which occurs about 18 months after the previous currency crisis, promptly pushing the credit system to another crisis.

The rate cuts from late 2014 were enforced by liquidity releases from term repo deals and outright purchases of Treasury bills.

In 2015 the Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe openly admitted to Keynesian stimulus despite the country operating a reserve collecting pegged exchange rate regime, with the central bank intervening in forex markets in both directions (providing weak side and strong side convertibility).

In 2018 rate cuts were enforced and a call monetary rate was targeted with a combination of overnight reverse repo injections, term repo injections and outright purchases of Treasury bills and bonds from commercial banks.

Output Gap Targeting

‘Flexible’ inflation targeting was backed up by calculation of a so-called potential growth number or output gap.

Rates are cut or money is then injected rates and injected money to close the ‘output gap’ which is also a for on Keynesian stimulus, which at the time estimated around 5 percent or higher.

In August 2019 the central bank said it was printing money because growth was 3.1 percent, potential growth was 5.0 percent and “output gap stabilization is an important concern in a flexible inflation targeting regime and that again argues for a relaxation of monetary policy.”

Under the last administration there was an attempt to usurp the monetary law, legalize both flexible inflation targeting and a flexible exchange rate and indemnify officials.

Analysts have faulted the International Monetary Fund for peddling flexible inflation targeting to pegged third world central banks with ‘fear of floating’ and also for teaching Sri Lanka to calculate a potential growth number which Mercantilist can then use as an excuse to print money and drive the country headlong into balance of payments crises.

Top economist W A Wijewardena had said that output gap targeting was against the monetary law, which requires the agency to maintain price and economic stability.

Related

Sri Lanka has a corrupted inflation targeting, output gap targeting not in line with monetary law: Wijewardena

In December 2019 the finance ministry said it was cutting taxes to close a ‘persistent output gap’.

“The switching of resources from unproductive public expenditure to the private firms and individuals will be growth friendly in a context where there has been a persistent output gap,” the Finance Ministry said in December 2019.

“Higher growth will have a positive impact on the overall debt dynamics of the country as well.”

Related

Sri Lanka fiscal stimulus to close output gap

In the first quarter of 2020, the central bank cut rates, and slashed reserve ratios and later imposed price controls on bond auctions to print money and prevent the cash released from the tax cuts into private sector hand from coming back to the budget through higher interest rates.

In a hard peg a tax cut cannot de-stabilize exchange rate because the lost money would have ended up back in the budget deficit through higher bond yields as money cannot be printed to keep rates down.

However Sri Lanka does not have a hard peg (currency board) and the the rest is history. (Colombo/Apr17/2022)

Sri Lanka economic crisis protests led by youth see national unity

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s main protest site against President Gotabaya Rajapaksa by his secretariat building has become a rare sight of national unity with all communities coming forward in a show of national unity in diversity.

With the introduction of the popular vote by the British, politicians, the urban intelligensia and sections of Sri Lanka’s clergy have fired linguistic, ethnic and religious hatred to win votes or pass legislation to elevate one group over another after independence.

Separately legislation was made to make naturalization almost impossible in another fit of nationalism, while making a large group of people who were born in the country stateless, critics say.

Before colonial rulers brought the popular vote and parliament, Sri Lanka was ruled by a feudal class who intermarried with their kin in India and who were largely indifferent to linguistic hate, much like the monarchies of the rest of Asia and the world.

The “Gota Go Home” campaign, demanding President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to resign is a rare phenomenon in the island nation of 22 million people.

Many protestors however do not necessarily have a deep understanding of political theory or liberal values that place human lives above nationalism, but are driven by economic considerations, brought to a head by extraordinary levels of money printed by the central bank to keep rates down which created forex shortages.

The money was printed by economists backing the Sri Lanka Podujana Party who wanted to create a ‘production economy’ within ‘developmental state’.

“In the emerging developmental state, the central bank stands ready and is willing to join hands with fiscal and policy planning authorities to help open the vistas of prosperity for the benefit of the people,” Central Bank Governor W D Lakshman said delivering the 70th anniversary lecture of the agency.

“In this context, the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, with its 70 years history is being expected to play its role as an agent of development.”

Related

Sri Lanka central bank to work closely with finance ministry in developmental state: Governor

Instead providing economic and price stability under its governing law, the agency had earlier printed money under a ‘flexible inflation targeting’ creating two currency crises under ‘flexible inflation targeting’ fueling stagflation and helping bring President Rajapaksa to power. (Sri Lanka’s UNP pays the price for currency depreciation, REER targeting)

Flexible Exchange Rate Crisis

The forex shortages from the ‘flexible exchange rate’ which is neither a floating rate nor a fixed exchange rate has in turn triggered shortages of cooking gas, electricity, medicine and some foods like milk.

After two years of money printing, inflation hit 18.7 percent in March and food index is up 30.1 percent over the past year and 42.2 percent over two years.

“Budder-ter-kanna…(to fill the stomach),” chants a leader of one group of protestors. “Buth tikker nehe.. (there is no rice) answers his followers in chorus.

“Uyar gun-ner (to cook it),” the leader says. “Gasuth ne” (there is no gas) answers the group.

“Gedera in-ner (to stay at home),” starts the leader. “Light-uth ne” (there is no power) the protestors answer.

“Aye munter raver-ten-na,” (we will not be deceived by them again) chants a group in the Sinhalese language.

“Rata kun-ner-ter denneth ne (will not allow them to eat/consume the country)

The protest is within a stone’s throw of the country’s central bank which is responsible creating forex shortages by printing excess money to keep interest rates down.

In the two years to February 2022, the central bank had printed 2.13 trillion rupees, firing domestic credit and blowing the balance of payments apart.

The massive liquidity injections made under so-called Modern Monetary Theory during the tenure which makes it impossible to hold an exchange rate steady without losing reserves had been dubbed the ‘Lakshman shock’ by W A Wijewardene, a rare classical economist in the island full of Mercantilists.

The central bank operates an unstable soft-peg with the US dollar called a ‘flexible exchange rate’ which is neither a hard peg (consistent external anchor) nor a free floating rate (consistent domestic anchor), using shifting rules in a monetary regime called flexible inflation targeting, which had created three currency crises since 2015.

Newly appointed Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe has hiked rates by a record 700 percent in a bid to protect the rupee by slowing economic activities and to reduce the inflation the agency would create in the coming months.

The central bank had had created high inflation and forex shortages for 72 years by printing money mis-using its ‘monetary policy independence’ granted by the parliament in 1950 through a law drawn up in the style of Argentina’s central bank to operate an unstable soft-pegged exchange rate regime.

From 1885 to 1950 the country had a hard peg (currency board) with no anchor conflicts which had steered the island through World Wars and a Great Depression.

The soft-pegged central bank brought increasingly draconian exchange controls from 1952 and an import control law was enacted in 1969 by an administration which printed money and created official parallel exchange rates, shortly before its ouster.

In the 1970s the two laws were extensively used in what is now called the ‘closed economy’ when shortages, rationing and black markets were widespread and profits were made by so-called import substitution oligarchs as now.

In the 1980s the economy was re-opened by the but continued money printing and depreciation in the to pursuit of competitive exchange rate continued to create economic hardships, widespread strikes and social unrest.

There were two insurrections in 1971 and 1988/89 led by Marxists Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) who tried to take over the entire country, and a 30-year civil war waged by Tamil Tiger rebels from the early 1980s for a separate state.

Groups in the north also first became active in the 1970s, assassinating mainstream politicians. All three were controlled with equally harsh military action.

Multi-Festivals

The protestors in 2022 are peacefully demanding changes to the way the country is governed and want more young people to come to office.

The tech-savvy youth voluntarily gathered, self helped with the food and water supply, found ways to continue the protest despite a New Year celebrated by ethnic majority Sinhalese and minority Tamils, Easter week celebrated by Catholics, and Ramadan fasting observed by Muslims.

The protest has now started to attract popular artists, celebrities, sports stars and elders to the demonstration while forcing many others to openly repent for backing Gotabaya Rajapaksa in the November 2019 polls.

Buddhist Monks, Catholic and Islamic priests, and Hindu devotees all came together for the protest.

Buddhist monks chanting “pirith” to bless the protesters, Catholic priests questioned Rajapaksa’s long delay of 2019 Easter Sunday attack probe, Muslims held their iftar or break fasting and prayers at the protest – expressing a rare unity in diversity.

“This generation is faster, more driven and are determined to have a change,” an elder protester who voluntarily came to the protest told Economy Next.

“The issue we face now is that the people within the boundaries of the government are more laid back to their views and don’t seem to understand the pace of the new generation. So obviously the protests will be long lasting.”

The political savvy among them are calling for constitutional change, involving the abolishing of the executive presidency which had destroyed a once independent public service by ending an independent civil service commission.

Sri Lanka Podujana Party using its two third majority had ended a constitutional council set up by a 19th amendment to the constitution which sought to go someway in setting up an independent judiciary and public officers, though nothing had been done to appoint permanent secretaries to ministries.

Social Media

Thousands of protesters have now established small tents at the protest site, medical facilities, a library to read, a people’s parliament to express the views of all and portable washrooms.

Food is given away freely to support those who are there for the cause. The sentiment around the camp is “we won’t go home till Gota goes home”.

They named the protest site as “Gota Go village”. They also have established a “Gota shop” to collect food and water for the protesters. The collection is coordinated through social media.

Political analysts see the latest protest as the biggest apolitical movement against the government in the last 74 years since independence.

Many protesters are making use of a nine-day holiday this week to show their dissent, undeterred by the Government’s sealing off of the historic Galle Face Grounds “for repairs”.

Some are continuously staying, while others participate “in shifts” due to time constraints. Many are braving the sun and rain to keep the protest going.

“I feel fortunate about the opportunity to come and contribute to this historic moment,” said Hiranthi Lakshika, a 38 year old woman told Economy Next.

” People are suffering, but these leaders are continuing with misappropriation. I think people have understood something. That is why people have gathered here regardless of their ethnicities any religion for the first time in the history.”

“Despite all these problems, there is no plan for revival and there are hardly any brains in the government to think of any revival.

“Sri Lanka is not poor. We are very rich in terms of the country’s location. These politicians have repeatedly raped this country and many youths have already left this country. If all join hands, we can develop this country.”

“Rajapaksas have proven us repeatedly that they are corrupt and they have no concerns for the public. So Gotabaya and Rajapaksa family should leave. There is no compromise on that. If they don’t leave, you will find how these youths will force them to leave.”

In addition to money printing, a key policy error of the current administration was a fertilizer ban backed by the Government Medical Officers Association which had said ancient Sri Lankan lived for over 100 years before agro-chemicals came.

“Gotabaya has destroyed out agricultural economy. He has pushed this country back my many years,” said W Priyantha, a 42-year old farmer who has come from Ratnapura.

“He also has appointed all corrupt ministers and the country is suffering.”

Farmers were the first to protest against the administration last year during the fertilizer ban, long before the urban middle class started to protest.

Braving the elements

Protestors brave the sun and rain to stay in the protest site which has now been named GotaGoHome gama.

“I was there only for a few hours today, and I was exhausted. The heat was unbearable,” T N Nawas, who comes into Galle Face every day since the protest started.

“I can’t imagine what it’s like for the people who are there the whole day.

“People were protesting under umbrellas and holding their placards as shades. The weather is just extreme, it’s extremely hot during the day and it suddenly starts to rain with massive lightning bolts.”

Protesters share news, thoughts, and anecdotes via WhatsApp, TikTok, FaceBook, Instagram, and Twitter among many other social media platforms keeping in touch with the rest of the country.

“I’m constantly updating myself and other people on social media, and building an archive of sorts of historical events that people might not be aware of,” said 20-year-old Sarasi Lakpura from Nugegoda.

She is unable to take part in the physical protests.

Rajapaksa’s ruling Sri Lanka PodujanaPeramuna (SLPP) ran an election campaign targeting Sinhala Buddhist majority and Catholics in the last two polls after the 2019 Easter Sunday attack by Islamist suicide bombers that killed at least 269 people mainly Catholics.

The SLPP also said choosing Rajapaksa was the only option to protect Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, national security, while promising justice to the victims of Easter Sunday’s carnage.

During their campaign Sri Lanka Podujana Party activists carried lion flags without the coloured strips representing minorities.

But the 2022 protestors wave the full national flag.

Some also drape themselves in it.

In recent months several persons linked to the Sri Lanka Podujana Party and others who were facing corruption charges were released with cases being withdrawn.

Last week lawyers protested in front of the Attorney General office demanding cases, which were withdrawn on technicalities to be re-filed.

More Protests?

The current protesters are from urban middle and middle class youth who are experiencing shortages and power cuts for the first time in their life. Most have never taken part in a protest in their lives.

They are protesting for a political system change to go back to their comfort zone.

However, with the economic crisis has started to trickle down gradually to the grass root levelsmore could join the “Go Gota Home” campaign soon.

Suffering at grass root levels is rising. However they cannot leave their job or livelihood to come and join the protests on a long term basis.

“If those people who are waiting in the kerosene lines join us, this whole situation will change drastically,” said protester Ravindra Wijesekera.

“They think in a different way. They won’t lay low and speak nicely. And if that happens it will be very hard for the government to control the situation,” he said.

To save the falling rupee the central bank has to now stop printing money and find money to pay the salaries of a bloated public sector by taxing people and businesses, under a planned International Monetary Fund program.

Though people now know that there were no shortages during earlier IMF programs or such steep currency falls, the coming tax hikes and to pay the public sector and high rates to sell domestic debt is likely to trigger a downturn in the private sector.

In a bid to reduce pressure on the domestic economy and release resources for a reasonable growth path eventually, the IMF has pushed the country to re-structure foreign debt.

Many of the protesters are angry not just with the Rajapaksa family, but 225 parliamentarians in general who enjoy tax free cars, pensions after five years for themselves and family members appointed as personal staff and subsidized luxury meals at parliament.

Suresh Udawatte is a committed protestor whose business is in shambles says as hardships increase more people will join the protests.

Udawatta serves shifts at the protest site to be a part of the “Go Gota Home” movement.

His sign reads, “Our children’s milk was stolen for the luxuries of your own children!”

The atmosphere at “Gota Go Village” is shown by its shiny new trilingual sign, and the feeling of community and energy that is there in the crowd, even as the protests continue well into the night.

“There’s a cohesive force that isn’t dying out until we have fulfilled our motives,” said a committed protestor asking not to be named holding a placard saying: “Sri Lanka is not Poor, we aren’t poor, we were robbed.” (Colombo/April 13/2022)

Sri Lanka coal plant may shut in fresh crisis unless two...

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Electricity Board will be forced to shut down one of three 300MegaWatt coal plants, worsening a power crisis, unless payment is made for two ships anchored off the coast for days, power sector sources said.

Without coal the CEB would be forced to shut one of three 300Mega Watt coal plants adding to an economic crisis.

Two coal ships are anchored off the coast of Sri Lanka from April 08 awaiting payment and are likely to sail away on April 18, the next day that banks due to open unless letters of credit are established and payment made, power sector sources said.

The shippers have to be paid 80 percent of the value when the shipment arrives document are submitted.

High volumes of diesel generation, amid a drought has depleted CEB’s cashflow, with the rupee also falling from 203 to 330 level levels due to float failed by low policy rates and a surrender requirement imposed by the central bank.

The CEB was earlier without cash (in rupees) to give to banks to buy dollars or pay salaries, with the regulator failing to hike rates.

Sri Lanka’s CEB has been running three 300MW coal plants at the Lakvijaya complex in Puttalam providing the base load for at least several hours of electricity at a lower cost.

If the coal ships leave the CEB may have to shut down one of the coal plants from May 2022, sources said, worsening a power and economic crisis.

Though rains are starting to come, if the coal plant is shut, 300MW will have to come from diesel plants, which are already idling due to lack of fuel.

When the monsoon starts in May, the CEB is unable to unload the coal ships, which has to be done painstakingly using barges. Sri Lanka will then have to wait till the monsoon ends around September to get coal.

Sri Lanka can resume imports of fuel and other items if the central banks stop printing money and establishes a float.

So far attempts to establish a float has failed due to a surrender requirement as well as low interest rates. Rates have been hiked but a surrender requirement remains. (Colombo/April15/2022)

Sri Lanka’s Litro Gas chief resigns, slams ministers, govt for crisis

ECONOMYNEXT – The chairman of Sri Lanka’s state-run Litro Gas Company Ltd, Theshara Jayasinghe, has resigned blaming ex-ministers and the administration for the country’s economic crisis, in resignation letter addressed to President Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Jayasinghe alleged that ministers and government officials under whom Litro operates did not support the decisions to combat wrongdoing.

“Majority of the ministers and members of the parliament representing the ruling party are trying to escalate the current situation rather than supporting the government to control it,” he claimed.

“The question I have is, is it because of the decisions I took from the start to stop the corruption within the organization?”

Jayasinghe said, he was able to stop the sale of 18-litre cooking gas cylinders which are through to have contributed to fires and explosions in cookers.

He claimed there was corruption in gas imports.

“After discussing with you regarding these international mafias which resulted in the loss of billions of rupees, I tried at my level best to stop all the corruption,” he wrote.

“However, it was hard due to the challenges faced by the authorities from the management and at the social level. It was clear all the incidents that happened from that moment were all according to a pre-planned script.”

Jayasinghe said the current gas shortage cannot be solved by discussions within the organizations, and all parties involved in the economy should support it.

“The devaluation of the rupee, forex shortage in importing gas, difficulties faced by the state owned and private banks and predictions regarding the economic situation of the country made by foreign investors are some of the issues that cannot be solved within the organizations,” Jayasinghe said.

“It is a nauseating experience to see the officers responsible for the national monetary policy and money handling, not taking adequate measures solve this issue easily and letting the general public in the country to suffer due to negligence or with knowledge.”

Sri Lanka is facing forex shortages due to money printed by officials running the island’s Latin America central bank.

Central Bank and the country’s ‘economists’ have destroyed the currency for 72 years though open market operations and direct finance of the budget to keep down interest rates and imposed import controls on the unknowing public.

Newly appointed Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe has hiked interest rates, but a dollar surrender rule that hit the currency peg and blocks a float remains.

Jaysinghe calimed the current gas shortage still can be solved and the recommendation have been provided to the President and the authorities a few months ago.

He said, discussions have been made with the Indian High Commission and the initial facilities to import gas on credit is already in place in order to continue the gas supply in the country.

“For the first time in the history of the firm, the tenders were called from gas suppliers through all high commissions in the country with the utmost monetary transparency and I hope it will be carried forward,” he said.

Sri Lanka general public is still facing issues due to the gas shortage and many small and medium scale entrepreneurs connected to the food chain in the country along with households are facing difficulties.(Colombo/ April 15/2022)

Sri Lanka rations fuel to motorists as currency crisis continues

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) on Friday rationed fuel sales to most customers, saying it will speed up distribution and make more available fuel to more customers as the country grappled with the worst central bank crisis in the country’s history.

“This is to increase our efficiency in distributing fuel. This will be temporary,” the CPC chairman Sumith Wijesinghe told Economy Next.

Ceiling have been placed for most segments of customers from 1.00 pm Friday.

Motorcycles are given up to 1,000 rupees worth petrol which is less than 4 liters.

Three wheelers can get up to 1,500 Sri Lankan rupees ($4.5) worth or 6 litres of petrol or 8.5 litres of diesel.

Cars, Vans, and Jeeps are given up to 5,000 rupees ($15) worth fuel which is 19.7 litres of petrol or 28.4 litres of diesel.

Wijesinghe said in a statement that sales to buses, trucks and commercial vehicles are not rationed.

The move comes three days after Sri Lanka declared “preemptive default” on its all foreign loans saying it cannot service debt.

Sri Lanka is facing severe forex shortages after the central bank stopped interest rates from going up after taxes were cut in 2019 December and printed large volumes of money, creating forex shortages and pressuring a soft-peg with the US dollar.

The fuel shortage has hit the power generation and the government has been imposing extended power cuts – sometimes 13 hours per day.

India helped Sri Lanka with a 500 million fuel credit line which started in mid March. However, government sources say the Indian credit line is almost exhausted now.

The CPC chief early this week said they are discussing with India to secure another 500 million dollar credit line and looking for a number of other fuel credit proposals to manage the next few months.

Like now the central bank also printed money in 2015/2016 and 2018 created fore shortages and made the CPC borrow dollars. The central government also borrowed heavily in capital markets as forex shortages emerged, except in 2017 and 2019 when when monetary stability was maintained. (Colombo/April 15/2022)

Occupy Galle Face protest welcomes the New Year

COLOMBO (News 1st); The Sinhala and Tamil New Year, traditionally a joyous period of celebration and festivities, dawned this year amidst many challenges faced by Sri Lankans.  The shortage of fuel, gas, essential medicine and food all accumulated to formulate the Economic Crisis which Sri Lanka is currently undergoing, which had left the population reeling, Occupy Galle Face protest welcomes the New Year