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ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka Ports Authority has waived 20 million US dollars of demurrage for importers who have been unable to clear goods in time due to delays in releasing foreign exchange from banks, Chairman Prasantha Jayamanna said.

Some importers who been denied foreign exchange for weeks on end and said demurrage charges have exceeded the value of the cargo in their container.

“We have approximately wavered off 20 million dollars in demurrage and have been sent for Ministry approval,” Jayamanna said.

President Gotabaya requested in January assist by waiving demurrage charges, he said.

Sri Lanka is suffering the worst currency crisis in the history of the island’s central bank which operates an intermediate exchange rate regime (soft-peg).

Forex shortages emerge and the currency collapses in an intermediate regime when money is printed driving up domestic demand which end up in the forex market as imports exceeding any inflows that come. (Colombo/June02/2022)

ECONOMYNEXT – Bangladesh gifted 2.2 million US million dollars’ worth of medical supplies to Sri Lanka on Monday (03), Sri Lanka’s government information department said.

The donation was handed over by Bangladesh High Commissioner Tareq Md Ariful Islam to Sri Lanka Minister of Health Keheliya Rambukwella.

Due to forex shortages and the collapse of the rupee, Sri Lanka is currently facing a severe drug shortage in the country with 76 essential medicines still being out of stock to distribute within the health industry.

Due to the drug shortage, many government hospitals have postponed or limited their routine surgeries in order to save available stocks of medicine for emergency purposes.

The government statement said the donation consists of 79 essential medications including anti-cancer, anti-hypertensive, antibiotic oral and injectables, anti-viral, anti-epileptic and anti-asthmatic medication.

Earlier two consignments of medicine were donated by India and France.

Sri Lanka is facing drug shortages after money printing led to a currency collapse and forex shortages, analysts say.

Suppliers had also blamed the price controls of the National Medical Regulatory Authority (NMRA) for shortages.

Sri Lanka has an intermediate regime central bank which the economists in the country misuse to print money to boost growth (monetary stimulus or output gap targeting) and trigger currency crises. (Colombo/Jun01/2022)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Central Bank Governors have to be legally restrained from injecting liquidity using the absolute discretion available through ‘flexible’ inflation targeting cum output gap targeting and not given more room to print money through central bank independence.

Multiple central bank governors especially after 2015 printed money using ‘flexible inflation targeting’ and output gap targeting (stimulus) to create monetary mayhem, borrow dollars excessively in the forex shortages that followed and drive a country at peace into default.

Currency crises were created in 2015/2016, 2018 and 2020/2022. There was also a currency crisis in 2011/2012 in the middle of an IMF program similar to the 2018 one.

The absolute discretion available through flexible policies have to be restrained by rules based monetary policy.

Output gap targeting or stimulus

It was done through flexible inflation targeting with a flexible exchange rate and output gap targeting which in laymen’s terms means printing money in the hope of boosting growth.

However Sri Lanka has a pegged exchange rate regime, called a flexible exchange rate and whenever money is printed for flexible inflation targeting or output gap targeting, there is a currency crisis. There is no point in giving ‘central bank independence’ for the central bank to engage in open market operations, buy Treasury bills and drive a country at peace into default.

One may argue that the output gap targeting of 2020-2022 was part of the Saubhagya Dekma manifesto which promised a ‘production economy’ through a developmental state where taxes were cut and money had to be printed to stop the released taxes from coming back to the budget. The people, therefore, voted for the manifesto of the economic cranks.

However, no such justification can be given for the money printing from 2015 to 2018 which created two currency crises and ratcheted up sovereign bonds and Ceylon Petroleum Corporation borrowing as forex shortages emerged from output gap targeting.

Output gap targeting was not part of the manifesto

In fact, the Yahapalana manifesto promised a social market economy. A social market economy cannot work with currency depreciation but strong a currency and possible appreciation against the US dollar if the Fed prints money as the Bundesbank did.

A social market economy becomes an export and domestic economic powerhouse by providing a strong exchange rate with low inflation.

It provides stability to the family economy by preserving the real value of wages of the father and mother and the pension and savings of the grandmother and the grandfather, and the tiny deposits of the children, who save one cent by one cent (sathay sathay).

Flexible Shocks

Nobody bargained for the International Monetary Fund to teach the Yahapalana central bank to calculate an output gap. Nobody bargained for the central bank to print money when that policy fright administration failed to reform and trigger two currency crises shattering the voter’s incomes and savings.

Nobody bargained for Real Effective Exchange Rate Targeting where the currency was deliberately destroyed to keep an REER index below 100 and give unfair short term advantages to exporters at the expense of a voting public.

Nobody bargained for yield curve targeting where the central bank – prevented by public opposition from buying Treasury bills from auctions – would buy them from banks through term reverse repo auction.

Nobody bargained for the ‘bills only policy’ established by then Governor A J Jayewardene to be callously discarded without so much as a by your leave on the altar of output gap targeting and yield curve targeting and central bank to buy not only Treasury bills but also Treasury Bonds.

Nobody bargained for the central bank to print money in 2018 for output gap targeting, and trigger currency crises when taxes were raised by Mangala Samaraweera and Eran Wickremeratne.

Nobody bargained for the multiple currency crises which triggered forex shortages and the central bank was unable to buy dollars for rupees to settle dollar loans and instead ratcheted up sovereign bond holdings.

China also had to give budget finance loans to settle its liabilities due to forex shortages triggered by flexible inflation targeting cum output gap targeting.

Nobody bargained for the CPC to ratchet up its borrowings as forex shortages were triggered by ‘flexible inflation targeting’ cum ‘output gap targeting ‘and for the state banks to be bought to the brink of collapse.

Nobody bargained for the CPC to be barred from buying dollars for rupees, and for it to ratchet up dollar borrowings instead of buying dollars for rupees generated by Mangala Samaraweera’s price formula and for the rupee to be deposited in state bank repos after flexible inflation targeting.

Nobody bargained for Samaraweera’s price formula to be betrayed by flexible inflation targeting and central bank independence.

Impossible Trinity

A flexible peg with output targeting is subject to what is known as the impossible trinity of monetary policy objectives.

In fact, there has to be a commission of inquiry on how the CPC was barred from using the money from the price formula to buy dollars and was instead made to get suppliers’ credit and run up massive dollar loans in exactly the same way as the government borrowed through ISBs and China budget support loans to run up foreign debt and eventual default.

That central bank independence solves monetary problems is a Western myth.

Monetary problems are created by Anglo-Saxon flexible policy and output targeting by central bank governors who believe in what was taught at Cambridge, Oxford, Harvard and a host of saltwater universities even now. The IMF is no better. It also draws from the same universities.

Currency crises are created by third rate monetary policy where exchange and monetary policies conflict.

There are two regimes that work without conflicts.

Clean floating exchange rate regimes found in developed countries, where the monetary base is entirely created by domestic assets (open market operations) and its growth is controlled by an inflation target.

In a hard peg or mostly consistent pegs the monetary base is created entirely by foreign assets and the short term interest rate floats. There is no fixed policy rate enforced by money priting.

All other regimes, called soft-pegs, managed floats, dirty floats or the latest fashionable label, flexible exchange rates that are found in poor third world countries, Africa and Latin America, are intermediate regimes that collapse and depreciate.

It is practically not possible for a floating rate regime to experience a currency crisis (the central bank does not buy or sell foreign exchange for imports or any other purpose).

But soft-pegged countries do and it comes into conflict with the policy rate and they go to the IMF often.

And because the IMF gives loans to the central bank in a bailout it must operate a peg and buy dollars in the market to repay the loan. Therefore an IMF bailed out country will never graduate into a first world monetary regime.

The economists in the troubled country may also have a belief that they do not deserve a floating rate.

It may be due to an inferiority complex or simple fear of floating.

They also fear or do not believe and exchange rate can be fixed through a credible regime such as a currency board, even though with their own eyes they can see countries that do it, but their country has not done so in their own lifetimes.

The US does not want countries to fix their exchange rates in a false belief that East Asia became export powerhouses at the expense of the US with fixed exchange rates which are undervalued.

Therefore the IMF peddles flexible inflation targeting and ends up de-stabilizing them.

Singapore did not believe in output gap targeting

The reason many countries set up central banks in the last century was to print money and have discretinary policy. Inflation targeting emerged as a method to curtail that discretion or independence.

True inflation targeting with a clean floating rate also curtails central bank discretion and eliminate its independence or freedom to print money, somewhat like the gold standard.

Like a currency board, a low inflation target commits it to raise rates without discretion as soon as inflation picks up.

Output gap targeting using central bank credit does the opposite.

According to historians, the IMF repeatedly advised Singapore to set up a central bank. R W Goenman, an expert retained by the government to advise on currency, had supported a central bank.
https://mothership.sg/2021/10/sgd-history-central-bank/

However Goh Keng Swee, an LSE educated right-hand man of Lee Kwan Yew set up a currency board with the Finance Minister as Chairman.

“It is also not surprising that when the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) was set up, the Chairman was by law the Finance Minister,” Goh said at the 30th anniversary of that agency.

“World Bank experts advised us against this since the Chairman should be an independent person with sufficient authority to resist a Finance Minister’s request for money to finance a budget deficit.

“The World Bank believed that putting the Finance Minister in charge would be like asking a cat to look after fish.

“But Singapore has always worked on the principle that government expenditure on education, defence, social and economic services, etc, must be paid for out of government revenues — taxes and fees.

“Successive Finance Ministers have been doing just this. They do not need an independent Central Bank Governor to persuade them not to run budget deficits. The World Bank’s anxieties were misplaced.

“The way to a better life was through hard work, first in schools, then in universities or polytechnics and then on the job in the workplace. Diligence, education and skills will create wealth, not Central Bank credit.”

However under flexible inflation targeting cum output gap targeting the central bank printed money to close and output gap, triggering currency crises.

Economy Smashed

When a flexible exchange rate collapses, the economy has to be smashed to restore credibility. After money is printed rates have to be spiked to very high levels, such as now, the exchange rate has to collapse, governments have to change, and people have to suffer.

The problem is not holding the exchange rate as falsely claimed by Keynesians. The problem is printing money to keep rates down which makes the peg lose credibility. Then the economy has to be smashed to save the soft-pegged rupee. The economy is smashed not because it is sick, but because the soft-peg is sick.

By an elaborate ideology, mainly through repeating without any logic, people are made to believe that the fixed exchange rate is at fault, and not money printing and flexible policies.

Then people have to be taxed heavily to pay the public sector salaries because the economy shrinks as rates are raised to save the soft-pegged rupee.

Saving the rupee also saves the bank deposits. However, it is touch and go. Sometimes banks fail when the economy is smashed to save the flexible exchange rate.

If a liberal or socialist government is in power, nationalists come to power as the economy is smashed to stabilize the currency. If nationalists are there, liberals can come to power. However, if flexible inflation targeting and output gap targeting is continued with central bank independence, as in 2018, they will not last long.

Repeating Cycles

Under flexible exchange rate inflation falls to near zero in about 16 to 20 months after a currency crisis. Under flexible inflation targeting interest rates are cut when that happens, which coincides with credit recovery. It then triggers another currency crisis.

If there is enough commercial debt, they default as well. Then the cycle repeats. Therefore the country is doomed to operate a flexible exchange rate and have repeated currency crises and permanent depreciation.

Politicians are usually willing to take tough decisions after the central bank destroys the economy. JR did it, Samaraweera did it, President Rajapaksa is starting to do it.

However, whatever they do, the central bank will print money using its independence and trgger a currency crisis when the economy recovers, including when the politicians raise taxes, as happened in 2018.

Sri Lanka is now experiencing its first default. This column warned from around 2016, when the flexible inflation targeting/call money rate targeting started that downgrades would follow and that the country will default on foreign debt like the Weimar Republic. Under flexible inflation targeting and output gap targeting with central bank independence, it is inevitable that the cycle will repeat.

Now that is done once, Sri Lanka will become a serial defaulter.

A draft monetary law prepared to institutionalize the 2015-2019 flexible policy debacles has the tools to create similar disasters in the future.

According to one draft Article 7 (1) (a) gives the agency the power to “determine and implement money policy” and (1) (b) gives it the power to “determine and implement exchange rate policy” setting off an inherent policy conflict.

How can a central bank with an “exchange rate policy” operate inflation targeting. In inflation targeting reserve money has to be pegged to inflation not the exchange rate or the balance of payments.

A J Jayewardene when he started the central bank on the path to inflation targeting removed an original objective of preserving the “external value of the rupee” for this very reason.

Killer Discretion

Section 11 is a killer.

“There shall be a Monetary Policy Board of the central bank which is charged with the formulation of monetary policy of the Central Bank and the implementation of flexible exchange rate regime in line with the flexible inflation targeting framework in order to achieve and maintain domestic price stability”

Surely this is a joke? It sets into law the domestic and external anchor conflicts that lead to forex shortages, epitomizes the impossible trinity of monetary policy objectives trigger currency crises.

Argentina in 2018 was flexible inflation targeting and had 17 percent inflation when it collapsed.

Flexible inflation targeting and central bank independence will not help. There is no point in giving independence to central bankers who want to follow discretionary or flexible policy.

There are no guarantees that a Keynesian will not become a central bank governor in an independent central bank. There has only been one non-Keynesian governor in its 1972 year history.

Even if a non-Keynesian comes he will be tripped up by the foreign reserves.

If the central bank truly wants inflation targeting, it has to float the currency, stop acting as the banker to the government, and set up an office in the Treasury to buy foreign exchange for rupees to settle dollar debts and the central bank has to stop collecting reserves.

If not Sri Lanka has to set up a currency board. And do the same thing. Currency board profits can be transferred to a sovereign wealth fund which can be used for bank bailouts and ‘stimulus’ if the government wants.

The new law is a bigger disaster than the current one. To do what was done in the past 7 years the Monetary Board had to violate the main objectives of the current law. Under the new bill, it had be done with no violation as full discretion will be given.

What is needed is not central bank independence, as touted to Singapore by the World Bank and IMF to Sri Lanka, but central bank accountability and an agency that will be restrained by rules to block discretion involving output gap targeting and flexible policy.

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s inflation in the capital Colombo rose to 39.1 percent in May, data from the statistics office showed, after two years of money printing and a botched float with a surrender requirement that sent the rupee crashing to 380 from 200 to the US dollar.

The Colombo Consumer Price Index grew 8.3 percent in May after rising 9.3 percent in April with no sign yet that the central bank has got control of reserve money, though rates have been raised to kill private credit.

Food prices rose 57.4 percent in the 12-months to May.

Food prices were up 75 percent from December 2019 when extreme fiscal and monetary stimulus started.

Food prices are up 86.7 percent from July 2019 when the central bank started inflationary policy with outright purchases of bonds, losing the ability to run balance of payments surpluses as private credit recovered from an earlier BOP crisis in 2018.

Sri Lanka has an intermediate regime central bank (reserve collecting peg or flexible exchange rate) which runs into crisis as soon as money is printed to target create higher inflation or stimulate growth (output gap). (Colombo/May31/2022)

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka, now in the throes of its worst economic crisis since Independence with an unprecedented food crisis also said to be on the horizon, will be self-sufficient in rice next year, the country’s  new minister of agriculture Mahinda Amaraweera claimed on Tuesday (31).

Speaking to reporters at the weekly cabinet press briefing Tuesday morning, Amaraweera expressed confidence that Sri Lanka will come out on top of the coming “global food crisis” and will no longer need to import rice in 2023.

“After the next Maha cultivation season, we will definitely stop importing rice and we will be self sufficient. I can say that with responsibility. We have a programme in place with input form all stakeholders,” he said.

The minister also requested the media to refrain from dissuading farmers from returning to work.

“I ask the media to understand the crisis unfolding around the world. It’s okay to criticise us, but we ask that you do not discourage farmers from growing,” he said.

Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe and others have warned of a food crisis in the coming months if solutions to Sri Lanka’s worsening forex crisis aren’t fast-tracked. Some experts have predicted a crippling shortage in rice, Sri Lanka’s staple – triggered by President Gotabaya Rajapayaksa’s disastrous organic fertilizer policy and exacerbated by a lack of forex to import fertilizer as well as rice – as early as October 2022.

More recently, Sri Lanka was warned of higher food prices and shortfalls of foods after authorities banned open account and DA/DP tradeas the country tried to get out of a currency crisis by raising rates and killing private credit. On Monday (30), the central bank said it has taken on the task of arranging for dollar for food imports after banning open account imports.

Related:

Sri Lanka CB takes on task finding dollars for food after open account ban

Amaraweera, however, is confident that a food crisis can be averted if Sri Lanka embarks on a massive agriculture drive with the participation of all stakeholders including ordinary citizens contributing via homeg-ardening projects.

Urging farmers to get to work, the minister said the government will step in to purchase paddy at higher than market prices to facilitate increased production to avoid the impending crisis. The private sector will be encouraged to import inorganic fertilizer, which is currently in high demand and short supply, and the government will consider financial support to farmers to purchase fertilizer, he said.

The government is also looking to expedite fertilizer imports, with seven countries already approached. A delayed shipment of 65,000MT of fertilizer from India is also being discussed at diplomatic levels, he said.

The minister asked for the country’s cooperation in increasing seedpaddy production in the Maha season to keep the predicted food crisis at bay.

“This challenge can be overcome with contributions from everyone,” he said, asking the public to grow vegetables in their home gardens.

“I asked the prime minister not to cut any expenditure on agriculture. We will take up the challenge of saving forex spent on food imports by growing that food here. I have a lot of confidence in our farmers. I don’t care about their plastics, but I have worked with them closely. There are also skilled officials. We must get them all onboard. If anyone gets in the way, we won’t hesitate to remove them,” he said. (Colombo/May31/2022)

 

 

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said he met Central Bank Governor Nandalal Weerasinghe on discuss foreign exchange needs to import oil for June as the country faces forex shortages due to money printing.

State-run Ceylon Petrolem Corporation needs 554 million US dollars to import oil in June and and 100 million US dollars is provided through the Indian Credit line, he said.

A 500 million US dollar facility is also being discussed, he said.

As of 12 noon on May 30, Sri Lanka had 14,433 metric tonnes of diesel, 58 tonnes of super diesel, 41,975 metric tonnes of petrol, 14,041 metric tonnes of 95 octane petrol and 1,621 metric tonnes of Jet fuel.

Another diesel shipment is due to arrive at 1800h on May 30, he said.

Sri Lanka’s sole refinery which processes about 35,000 barrels a day has re-started operations also on May 30.

Sri Lanka this week bought a consignment of Siberian light crude for the refinery for which payments will be done in August.

Sri Lanka is facing the worst currency crisis in the history of the island’s 72-year intermediate regime central bank.

When the central bank prints money to control a policy rate through open market operations or directly finance the deficit, or to reject bids for Treasury bill auctions, the currency comes under pressure and the credibility of the peg breaks and there are forex shortages. (Colombo/May30/2022)

COLOMBO (News 1st); The newly appointed Minister of Agriculture, Mahinda Amarweera says that anyone who can, should get to the fields and start cultivating. Speaking to media today (29), the Minister assured that many steps have been taken to solve the food crisis which is yet to come. The Minister said that he hopes to propose to If you can grow, now is the time : Agri Minister

COLOMBO (News 1st); Sri Lanka is currently grappling with an economic crisis which had severely affected many sectors. This crisis has been blamed on the Government’s incorrect and arbitrary decisions. The agriculture sector also faced the same fate, which began from April 27th in 2021, when the Import and Export Control Department banned imports of fertilizer and agro-chemicals. How a fertilizer ban became a part of Sri Lanka’s Crisis

ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s pharmaceuticals suppliers are hit by payment delays and are also facing regulatory delays, and price controls which are making a shortage of drugs in the country worse an industry official said.

Local suppliers are owned around 7 billion rupees from a state pharmaceutical agency, an industry source said.

It had made it difficult for companies to continue supplies.

“If you to get a heart attack today it’s likely that you will not receive clot dissolving therapies,” an industry official who declined to be identified said.

“Or if you were to be bitten by a rabid dog you are unlikely to receive rabies virus neutralizing anti body injections both situations that can lead to a death sentence.”

Sri Lanka is facing severe foreign exchange shortages after the country’s soft-pegged central bank printed money and the currency collapsed from 200 to 380 to the US dollar, amid a botched float attempted with a surrender requirement.

The falling rupee and inflation fired by the central bank have pushed up inflation to around 40 percent.

Forex shortages still persist amid interventions.

The National Medical Regulatory Authority set up by the ousted Yahapalana regime has also imposed price controls, making it difficult to supply goods as costs went up, though prices have recently been raised.

Analysts had warned several years got that the Yahapalana regime should have curtailed the freedom of economists to print money by reducing its discretionary powers than bringing a price control agency.

The rupee collapsed from 131 in 2015 under money printed to target an output gap.

“Despite recent price increases granted, they even fail to mitigate the exchange loss, while cost of fuel, vehicles, parts, electricity and wages all have seen a dramatic escalation,” the official said.

“None of these have been compensated while they are major factors of distribution, cold storage, and inventory.”

NMRA gave the permission to increase the price of medicines twice in 2022 and the increase done in March, NMRA gave the permission to raise drug prices by 29 percent.

Many companies which import goods on suppliers’ credit are facing losses and are unable to supply medicines at contracted rupee rates, officials have said.

Pharma importers complain that the NMRA has added layers of regulation and costs.

It charges money to issue shipment clearance certificates and delays.

“As these clearance certificates are issued to each and every shipment, thousands of these certificates need to be issued consuming the capacity of the NMRA but generating more and more revenue to it,” an importer said.

Renewals of import licenses are also being delayed, he claimed.

Meanwhile the NMRA defended itself saying it had approved 30 medicines and 36 medical equipments to be imported without any registration through expert committees during the past two months.

NMRA also said, emergency clearance was given for 300 medicines and 48 medical equipment in the last two months.

“Unlike other goods, quality of medicines cannot be determined by the external looks, and irregular methods of clearing can cause injuries to a person’s life,” NMRA said in a statement.

“Taking the crisis for an advantage some medicine mafias are trying to import less quality medicines to the country,”

It also said, through a separate unit established, NMRA gave the authority and registered 150 medicines in the last two months after quality checks as an emergency project and around 20 manufacturing companies including four newly established companies were also cleared and authorized to manufacture medicines.

“It is clear that the lack of forex has resulted in medicine and other essential goods shortage in the country and the authority bodies are not responsible for that.,” NMRA said.

“The forex issue has directly impacted the importation of medicines as well as raw materials to manufacture medicines. Also the crisis in fuel, power and transportation has also disrupted the medicine industry and all of that is beyond the control of NMRA,”

NMRA said, by blaming the authority bodies the problem will be not resolved and only complicate it further.

The costs of maintaining the regulator have to be paid by sick people.

Banks are refusing to open Letters of Credit amid the forex shortage created by the central bank, and some small importers have been forced to halt operations, the industry says.

Forex shortages can only be created by a central bank, since it is the only agency that can print money and create excess demand.

“Importers who were earlier enjoying 90-120 days of credit from the manufacturers or the suppliers from India are now expected to pay 115 percent of the value of the proforma invoice in advance to import,” the source said.

“All of these factors have led to the current out of stock situation. It is not just the lack of dollars the banks,” the source said.

(Colombo/May28/2022)

ECONOMYNEXT – France has gifted Sri Lanka anesthetics and respiratory medications worth 300,000 Euros, Health Minister Keheliya Rambukwella said as the country fights a medicine shortage coming from a foreign exchange crisis driven by money printing.

“I’m truly grateful for this timely gift and assure the Sri lankan people that no stone will be left unturned in ensuring availability of meds & industry efficiency,” Minister of Health, Keheliya Rambukwella said in a twitter.com message.

Had the pleasure of receiving H.E. @LavertuEric, Amb of France who gifted €300k worth of anaesthetic & respiratory meds. I’m truly grateful for this timely gift & assure the #lka people that no stone will be left unturned in ensuring availability of meds & industry efficiency. pic.twitter.com/aYLBa4N4Na

— Keheliya Rambukwella (@Keheliya_R) May 26, 2022

Sri Lanka is suffering the worst currency crisis in the history of its 72 year old intermediate regime central bank which triggers currency collapses after printing money to keep interest rates down.

In 2022 the rupee fell from 200 to 380 to the US dollar as an attempt was made to float the rupee with a surrender requirement and without significantly raising rates to limit domestic credit.

Rates were later hiked, but forex shortages still persists amid a surrender rule, interventions and money printed to pay state workers.

Sri Lanka has struggled with the unstable soft-peg where currency crisis have intensified under more activist open market operations and output gap targeting (monetary stimulus) from 2015. In 2019 December taxes were also cut to target an output gap.   (Colombo/May28/2022)