CAN SRI LANKA SURVIVE?
Sri Lanka cabinet clears plan allow new foreign fuel distributors
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s cabinet of ministers has cleared a proposal to allow companies in oil producing countries to distribute fuel as the country is in the grip of a monetary meltdown triggered by mis-targeting of interest rates by a intermediate regime central bank.
At the moment 90 percent of fuel distribution is done by state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation and about 10 percent by Lanka IOC.
“Due to the currency crisis faced by Sri Lanka it is a big challenge to supply oil without interruption,” a statement issued after the weekly cabinet meeting said.
“In that situation it is seen as advisable to allow companies in oil producing countries to import and distribute oil using their own resources, without putting pressure on foreign currency problem.”
“The cabinet has approved a proposal by the Minister of Power and Energy to enter into long term agreements with companies selected through an orderly process.”
Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said on June 25 that players may be given 200 to 300 filling stations out of the 1,190 fuel stations operated by state-run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation.
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Sri Lanka plans to allow more fuel distributors
However they have to import and distribute oil on credit for 6 to 12 months, he said.
Sri Lanka has a habit of importing oil on credit and selling every time the soft-pegged central bank prints money to mis-target interest rates and triggers currency trouble. The CPC is already heavily indebted due to the soft-pegging and borrowings.
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On June 27, a group of CPC workers held Energy Ministry Secretary Mapa Pathirana hostage inside his vehicle and blocked his vehicle from leaving his office in a protest against the privatization plan.
Sri Lanka has had foreign exchange trouble ever since a soft-pegged central bank was set up in 1950 but the current meltdown is the worst in its history.
The rupee has fallen from 200 to 360 to the US dollar in a botched attempt to float the currency since March 2022.
The currency is still under pressure due to money printing. (Colombo/June27/2022)
Sri Lanka central bank to give payment plan for oil supplier...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s intermediate regime central bank which is in the midst of the worst currency crisis in its history will give a payment plan to settle arrears to oil suppliers, a statement issued after a meeting with President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said.
“The Governor of the Central Bank has agreed to pay the outstanding payments due to the relevant companies for the fuel supply with a plan,” the statement said.
“President Gotabaya Rajapaksa instructed the officials to take immediate action to import fuel using the existing funds available until then.”
President Rajapaksa had met the agents of the main oil suppliers to Sri Lanka on June 27.
“Fuel supply agents pointed out the need for direct engagement of the CB Governor and the Secretary to the Treasury with the mother companies supplying fuel, international banks and financial institutions,” the statement said.
“It was also decided to hold discussions with the relevant mother companies to obtain fuel within a certain grace period if fuel is not made available as per the letter of credit (LC) opening procedure followed so far.
“The President instructed to formulate a formal plan for the next few months to manage and maintain the fuel supply properly.”
“It was decided to provide funds from the Central Bank and the Ceylon Petroleum Corporation to restore the supply of fuel,”
Sri Lanka’s central bank ran out of reserves in the first quarter of 2022 after printing money for two years and is now intervening to maintain non-credible peg at 360 to the US dollar mainly with Asian Clearing Union dues deferred by India.
Forex shortages are problem associated with soft-pegged exchange rates and are absent in clean floats and credible pegs or currency boards.
There is also a surrender requirement to push the rupee down.
Sri Lanka’s rupee has fell to 370 to the US dollar from 200 in an attempt float the currency with a surrender requirement (forced dollar sales to the central bank by banks) while money continues to be printed to keep rates down. (Colombo/June27/2022)
Sri Lankans asked to stay at home as country runs out...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lankan are asked to stay at home from midnight on June 27 until July 10 cabinet spokesman Minister Bandula Gunewardena said as the Indian Ocean island ran out of fuel in worst currency crisis in history of its soft-pegged central bank.
The cabinet of ministers had decided that fuel will only be issued to essential services like the port, health, food distribution, agricultural transport services from midnight June 27.
“All other sectors are requested to stay at home and provide services online and help in this difficult time,” Minister Gunewardene said.
“If not we will not be able to distribute the limited stocks to essential services.”
Sri Lanka is expecting to have a better supply of fuel from July 10, Minister Gunewardena said without explaining details.
State bus companies will provide short distance services.
“Inter-provincial transport will most likely stop,” he said. “We expect private companies in export and tourism will continue to provide un-interrupted services.”
Sri Lanka is suffering severe forex shortages and a high inflation after two years of money printing to mis-target interest rates.
An attempt float with a surrender required led to a collapse of the currency from 200 to 370 to the US dollar.
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Sri Lanka economy grinding to a halt as monetary meltdown bites fuel imports
The central bank however has continued to print money to control interest rate and is also imposing a non-credible peg at 360 to the US dollar.
Sri Lanka to order exporters, embassies, hotels to pay electricity bills...
ECONOMYNEXT- Sri Lanka will order exporters, embassies, non-resident visa holders, hotels and will be ordered to settle their electricity bills in US dollars, the regulator has said as the island is in the grip of the worst currency crisis in the history of its soft-pegged central bank.
The customers will be invoiced in Sri Lanka rupees but they will have to settle the bills in US dollars, PUCSL Chairman Janaka Ratnayake said.
The money will be used to import coal, spare parts and foreign currency payments to private power producers.
There are plans to buy power from renewable power companies, which have political clout, for US dollars though the CEB does not invoice customers in US dollars, exposing the agency to foreign currency risk the same way as it is exposed to coal and liquid fuel.
Due to a broken soft-peg with the US dollar, Sri Lanka has difficulties transferring real wealth from the rupee credit system to the US Fed linked dollar banking system and fuel imports in particular have been badly hit.
The PUCSL is expected to hike electricity tariffs following a steep fall in the rupee in a botched attempt to float the currency after two years of money printing to mis-target interest rates.
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Sri Lanka power regulator proposes average tariff hike to Rs32 a unit
The PUCSL said companies with more than 60 percent dollar revenues will have to settle their bills in US dollars after the tariff hike is approved.
Relevant extracts from the PUCSL statment is reproduced below:
In order for CEB to import fuel (coal) and spare parts for the power plants and to pay foreign currency components of IPP invoices, it is proposed to collect sales revenue in United States Dollars from the consumers who have foreign currency income sources. Such USD collection by LECO shall be transferred to CEB as part of their Bulk Procurement payments.
Thus, all customers who earn more than 60% of their revenue in USD would be required to settle their monthly electricity bills issued by CEB/ LECO in USD, calculated at the USD exchange rate (buying rate declared by the Central Bank of Sri Lanka) at the time of settling the bill.
This will be effective along with the end user tariff review. Examples of such establishments are;
• Manufacturing establishments (including their factories, warehouses and offices) who export their products (include all factories in EPZs)
• Marine and Airline service providers (providing services to international aircrafts and ships)
• Export oriented IT or other service companies
• Non-resident visa holders and diplomatic missions/ residences
• SLTDA Registered Tourist Hotels, Boutique hotels, restaurants, etc. serving primarily foreign tourists (having rates published in USD)
Sri Lanka to release fuel for essential services only: cabinet
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s cabinet of ministers has approved a proposal to limit the release of fuel to essential services from midnight June 27 to July 10, cabinet spokesman Minister Bandula Gunawardena said.
Minister Gunawardena requested the public to limit nonessential travel and use fuel sparingly.
Sri Lanka is going through a deepening fuel crisis with refusing to confirm letters of credit issued by the country’s state banks, and oil suppliers are also rejecting them due to the country’s inability to pay in dollars.
Foreign banks refuse to confirm Sri Lanka state bank letters of credit: Minister
Fuel prices were also raised on Sunday (26).
Sri Lanka bus operators want tariff hike to account for central bank actions
Sri Lanka has been depending on Indian credit lines for fuel, and according to Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekara, the state run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) will need the help of the Treasury for repayments.
The fuel crisis has left Sri Lanka’s roads bare, with even the most populated roads looking like ghost towns. Drivers line up for days in fuel queues, and it has become common to see abandoned vehicles waiting in line for fuel that, according to authorities, is simply not available. (Colombo/Jun27/2022)
Sri Lanka’s private buses en route to grinding halt as fuel...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s private bus service will be unable to function at normal levels until a solution for the fuel crisis is proposed, Sri Lanka Private Bus Owners’ Association (SLPOA) Chairman Gemunu Wijeratne said.
“Even today fewer than 10 per cent of buses are running. Drivers are on strike because they have no fuel,” said Wijeratne, speaking to EconomyNext on Monday (27)
Sri Lanka is currently going through an indefinite interruption of fuel supply. Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera has said foreign banks are refusing to confirm letters of credit issued by Sri Lanka state banks, and oil suppliers are also rejecting them due to the country’s inability to pay in dollars.
Foreign banks refuse to confirm Sri Lanka state bank letters of credit: Minister
Fuel prices were also raised on Sunday (26), and the island’s private bus owners have requested the annual price revision for bus fares to take place to cover costs due to the loss of income from the reduction of passengers due to the closure of schools and public offices.
Sri Lanka bus operators want tariff hike to account for central bank actions
Wijenayake said on Thursday (23) that 75 per cent of buses were in operation, and that 100 per cent operations would resume when schools and government offices were opened, but the fuel crisis has put a dent in those plans.
Sri Lanka has been depending on Indian credit lines for fuel, and Wijesekara stated that the state run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation (CPC) will need the help of the Treasury for repayments.
The fuel crisis has left Sri Lanka’s roads bare, with even the most populated roads looking like ghost towns. Drivers line up for days in fuel queues, and it has become common to see abandoned vehicles waiting in line for fuel that, according to authorities, is simply not available.
“Buses are almost empty in the afternoons, so drivers are waiting longer at stops,” said Wijenayake.
However, the lack of buses means peak hours are usually jam packed and uncomfortable for passengers.
“We don’t trust the government at all. We have been waiting here for three days, because even if they say that there is no fuel, we will get a message that there is,” said one irate driver waiting in line – a sentiment echoed by many drivers. (Colombo/Jun27/2022)
Sri Lanka stocks fall to one-week low; dragged down by acute...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka stocks closed at one-week low on Monday (27), reversing a four straight session winning streak as the country’s fuel shortage weighed in on the market sentiments, brokers said.
Power and Energy Minister on Sunday asked the public to use fuel sparingly as there was no fuel shipment scheduled to arrive into Colombo in the foreseeable future.
The main All Share Price Index (ASPI) closed 2.6% or 199.3 points lower at 7,451.91, its lowest close since June 20.
“The market slipped on the fears that the economy would come to a standstill as the country struggles to find dollars to buy fuel,” a market analyst said.
“There is no confirmation when we will get the next shipment.”
Minister of Power and Energy told reporters that Sri Lanka’s oil suppliers are wary to supply after the recent downgrades.
Traditional suppliers to state-run fuel retailer Ceylon Petroleum Corporation could no longer bear the risk of supplying Sri Lanka due to unsettled arrears, he said.
The country also has issues opening letter of credit and some of the new suppliers are asking for pre-payments.
Analyst have said there was a lot of selling pressure in the market because the investors do not see an ideal market at least for the next 9-months due to high interest rates and taxes.
The turnover was 1.4 billion rupees, highest since June 7, but still less than a half of this year’s daily average turnover of 3.49 billion rupees.
A 10-member IMF team arrived in Sri Lanka and began discussions on policy corrections with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe on June 20 and the talks have been seen as positive for the investor sentiment. However, Sri Lanka must show progress on debt restructuring before IMF lends any money.
Market analysts have said investors were heavily feeling the pinch of economic crisis as the country’s fuel bunkers have dried out the island nation was frantically looking for dollars to purchase fuel.
The public sector and the schools have moved online for two weeks on the government’s advice to reduce transport and save fuel.
Though a new prime minister and a new cabinet have been appointed, analysts see little progress on both the economical and political fronts. The country is struggling to ensure a continuous supply of fuel due to a shortage of US dollars.
The more liquid S&P SL20 index plunged 3.6% or 89.10 points to 2,381.09.
The market has so far lost 7.9% in June after gaining 6% in May. It lost 23% in April followed by a 14.5% fall in March.
The market has lost 39% so far this year after being one of the world’s best stock markets with an 80% return last year when large volumes of money were printed.
Sri Lanka’s sovereign debt default has already led the country to be rated with restricted/selective default rating by rating agencies, which has weighed on investor sentiment.
Investors are also concerned over the steep fall of the rupee from 203 to 370 levels so far in 2022.
Expolanka Holdings led the fall with slipping 7.8% to 177.3 rupees a share.
Browns Investment fell down 10.5% to 7.7 rupees a share, while LOLC Holdings eased 6.9% to 406.3 rupees a share. (Colombo/June 27/2022)
Sri Lanka exports up 9-pct in May 2022, US up 25-pct,...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s exports grew 9.9 percent to 980.2 million US dollars in May 2022 from a year ago, the island’s Export Development Board said as the country grapples with the worst currency crisis in the history of its central bank.
Export to United States, the largest buyer of Sri Lanka goods, increased by 25.02 percent to US$ 266.42 million, with apparel up 40.83 percent and Coconut based products 29.69 percent.
From January to May exports to the US was up 20 percent to 1,364 million US dollars.
Exports to India increased 20.61 percent to US$364.99 million while, exports to Pakistan fell 6.75 percent to US$ 33.99 million.
Woven fabrics to India rose 162.2 percent and other textiles83.42 percent from January to May.
Exports in the five months to May was up 9.7 percent to 5.1 billion US dollars.
Sri Lanka’s exports are growing despite fuel shortages from forex shortages as an intermediate regime central bank continues to print money and force sell dollars to itself through a surrender requirement.
Exports of Apparel & Textiles grew 30.1 percent to US$ 482.7 million in May 2022.
Export earnings of kernel products were up 5.37 percent, fiber products 4.93 percent and coconut shell products 12.9 percent.
Seafood was up 11.8 percent to US$ 16.8 million with fresh fish up (4.9 percent) and Shrimps 90.74 percent.
Electrical & Electronics Components increased by 18.8 percent to US$ 41.8 million
Rubber and Rubber products fell 15.9 percent $76.7 million in May 2022, led by falls in pneumatic & retreaded rubber tyres and tubes (5.41 percent).
Export earnings from tea in May 2022 fell 14.2 percent to US$ 93.7 million. Export of tea packets fell 9.75 percent and bulk tea decreased 18.83 percent. (Colombo/June27/2022)
Foreign banks refuse to confirm Sri Lanka state bank letters of...
ECONOMYNEXT – Foreign banks are refusing to confirm letters of credit issued by Sri Lanka state banks, and oil suppliers are also rejecting them, Power and Energy Minister Kanchana Wijesekera said as the country reels from the worst currency crisis in the history of the central bank.
A supplier who was given an order for petrol had rejected a letter of credit issued by a state bank.
At first efforts were made with Bank of Ceylon to issue a Letter of Credit and later People’s Bank agreed to issue a letter of credit.
Minister Wijesekera said efforts were made to get Standard Chartered Bank and some Indian banks to confirm the Letter of Credit but they had declined.
The supplier then tried to get the trade credit approved by a financial institution affiliated to them, but a few days later the agency had also refused.
The ship had then been diverted to an Indian port, he said and CPC could not confirm when the next petrol ship would come.
State run Ceylon Petroleum Corporation owes US$326mn to traditional suppliers through the Bank of Ceylon and would owe US$371mn to suppliers by June and July when the terms expire through letters of credit opened by People’s Bank, he said.
The LCs related to fuel imports made in November, December, January, February, March and April 2022.
Some suppliers like Petro China used to give Sri Lanka 180 days of credit through LCs, Minister Wijesekera said.
Sri Lanka is operating probably the most deadly monetary regime cooked up mainly by US neo-Mercantilists and peddled to third world nations called flexible inflation targeting where a unstable reserve collecting peg (flexible exchange rate) is bombarded with liquidity injections via open market operation (flexible inflation targeting) until it collapses.
Traditional suppliers to Ceylon Petroleum Corporation could no longer bear the risk of supplying Sri Lanka due to unsettled arrears, he said.
However efforts were underway to develop a payment plan to settle them, he said.
Sri Lanka was not getting responses for recent oil tenders he said. Except for a solitary tender for Jet-A1 which was too expensive at around 70 million US dollars when the normal price was around 50 million dollars, there were no responses for regular tenders, he said.
With old suppliers in arrears the CPC had evaluated proposals from a number of new suppliers who had made proposals and given letters of awards.
Several of the new awardees had also moved out, he said.
“Two suppliers told me that their banks when they went to their banks, their suppliers refused to supply after a further downgrade a few days ago they cannot agree to LCs with these banks or tripartite agreements,” Wijesekera said.
The new supplier had asked for pre-payment but there was no provision in the agreement to do that.
However the CPC was now looking at paying upfront and getting oil, he said. (Colombo/June27/2022)