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Sri Lanka shares slip to one-week low amid forced selling
Roses dominate in Sri Lanka’s picked up valentine sales
Sri Lanka crisis committee on essential items eyes New Year needs
ECONOMYNEXT – A crisis committee appointed by President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to ensure essential items are available amid a forex shortage has focused on the needs of an April 2022 New Year season, its chief Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa has said.
Sri Lanka is facing severe forex shortages, amid excess rupees produced by the central bank to keep interest rates low and fixed and imports are soaring.
“Our first task is to provide consumers essential items without a shortage in Sinhala-Hindu New Year that is up coming up,” he told meeting at the Finance Ministry earlier this week.
“It is not only that period, we want to make sure it happens even after that. It is mainly the responsibility of the two trade ministries.”
As of February 11 there, cement, wheat and cooking gas were in short supply but there were stocks of most other goods, Minister Rajapaksa had said.
Minister Dayasiri Jayasekera had a problem with good being priced differently in some districts.
Television channels showed people queuing up for cement this week.
President Gotabaya ordered the committee to be formed on February 07.
Sporadic shortages have been seen as foreign exchange releases for shipments were delayed amid money printing and credit which was driving imports to high levels.
Sri Lanka’s central bank has provided US dollars to importers as containers got stuck at Colombo Port and fuel ships also arrived in Colombo and waited for the letters of credit to be cleared from around September 2021.
Sri Lanka inflation is soaring and severe forex shortages have emerged as money was printed continuously from around February 2020 to create a ‘production economy’ blowing the balance of payments apart.
Analysts and economists have called for a revamp of the country’s monetary law to stop the central bank from printing money to manipulate interest rates. Politicians passed the law in 1950 to enable money printing, and the rupee which was fixed from 1885 started to collapse.
Sri Lanka is currently printing money to sterilize interventions (after giving reserves for imports) and maintain a 6.5 percent policy rate, which is less than half the 14.2 percent inflation generated by the central bank in the year to January 2022 by printing money.
The central bank is also printing money to give an eight rupee subsidy to expat workers who send dollars through official channel. The money boomerangs on the 200 to the US dollar peg triggering more forex shortages.
The central bank is also creating money through a forex surrender requirement, but dollar sales to commercial banks are exceeding purchases. (Colombo/Feb13/2022)
Sri Lanka senior legislators, ex-speaker call for debt-renegotiation, correct policies
ECONOMYNEXT – Senior Sri Lanka opposition figures and an ex-speaker have called for “orderly re-negotiation of sovereign debt” and “correct policies” for sustainable growth as the country heads for currency depreciation and possible default due to money printing.
Sri Lanka’s government external debt has reached nearly 120 percent, interest payments were also excessively high as a share of state revenues and there were forex shortages, the legislators and ex-speaker said.
“In such a context, we recognize the best way forward for Sri Lanka is to immediately initiate a multi-step process towards an orderly negotiated postponement and restructure of repayment of its sovereign debt,” the group said.
“Sri Lanka can then correct its policies towards a path of sustainable economic growth and debt management , while also ensuring access to essential needs and goods for the Sri Lankan economy and Its people .”
“We recognize that undoubtedly the government has a daunting task ahead, and as a country there is a need for us all to come together to overcome this challenge.
“We further acknowledge the need for sound reform to the national economic policy that will address the root causes for this situation and ensure sustainable solutions to steer the country out of this unprecedented economic crisis, and forge an equitable and just solution for our future generations.”
The statement came following a bi-partisan meeting of legislators which included several ruling party members who are concerned about the current economic problems.
The opposition also called for the welfare of the poorest communities.
“We acknowledge that Sri Lanka should take immediate measures to ensure strong social welfare for its people so that the poor and vulnerable communities are protected from the adverse impact of this economic crisis,” the statement said.
However unlike other countries that had severe debt problems like Greece which was part of the Euro region or Ecuador which is now dollarized and could not depreciate the currency, Sri Lanka has its own rupee which is weakened by money printed to keep interest rates down.
As a result a fall of the currency would further push up inflation and destroy the real value of pensions, rupee denominated bank deposits and salaries while also pushing the cost of exported and imported goods including foods.
Analysts had warned for several years that the hardship people face in a soft-pegged country with depreciated money is not the budget cuts opposed by the anti-austerity brigade such as in Eurorized Greece, but is that of Latin American collapsing pegged currencies.
Sri Lanka’s legislators themselves had given wide powers for the central bank to print money, create forex shortages, depreciate the currency (in the first central bank law the currency could not be depreciated without approval) and also impose exchange controls and interest controls.
Using the central bank’s money printing power, successive governments had had engaged in inflationary deficit financing and blamed other causes for both inflation and forex shortages.
Sri Lanka in 2019 slashed taxes for ‘stimulus’ and the central bank printed the highest volume of money in its history to prevent interest rates from going up, leading to a severe external drain.
The central bank itself is now indebted.
Analysts and economists had called for rule based central bank control, which also serves as a hard budget constraint to stop deficit spending.
Sri Lanka from September started to use foreign reserves for imports as forex shortages became acute.
In the normal course of business foreign reserves are not used for imports but small amounts are collected each month to re-build reserves and repay lumpy debt.
When reserves are depleted the only course of option available is to hike rates and float the currency to stop reserves from being used for imports and sterilized with new money.
The full statement is reproduced below:
11th February 2022
A collective response to our economic crisis:
We the undersigned, recognizing the unprecedented nature of the economic challenges facing us, seek urgent, constructive, and sustainable solutions to this pressing situation.
We note that:
(1) The country’s ratings have fallen to the level of being blacklisted in International credit markets. Since April 2020, Sri Lanka has been locked out of borrowing using International Sovereign Bonds (ISBs) in the International market,
(2) Repaying US dollar debt in this context means that the usable foreign reserves are down to below one month of imports – the lowest on record since independence.
(3) The ratio of interest on debt to government revenue was above 70% in 2020, a historical high for Sri Lanka, and amongst the highest in the world.
(4) The ratio of public debt compared to the value of Sri Lanka’s domestic production (GDP) is also the highest on record, at 120%. It skyrocketed, by almost 2S percentage points, in the last two years. Each of these situations by themselves would spell a serious economic challenge. •
‘ . . .
Occurring simultaneously, this pressing and historic’ e conomic crisis is threatening our future, in both the short term and long term.
We recognize that undoubtedly the government has a daunting task ahead, and as a country there is a need for’ us all to come together to overcome this challenge.
We acknowledge that Sri Lanka should take immediate measures to ensure strong social welfare for its people so that the poor and vulnerable communities are protected from the adverse impact of this economic crisis .
We further acknowledge the need for sound reform to the national economic policy that will address the root causes for this situation and ensure sustainable solutions to steer the country out of this unprecedented economic crisis, and forge an equitable and just solution for our future generations.
We are fully cognizant that Parliament has full control of public finance, and that each member of parliament has a fiduciary responsibility to ensure the proper management of public finances in Sri Lanka .
In such a context, we recognize the best way forward for Sri Lanka is to immediately initiate a multi-step process towards an orderly negotiated postponement and restructure of repayment of its sovereign debt. Sri Lanka can then correct its policies towards a path of sustainable economic growth and debt management , while also ensuring access to essential needs and goods for the Sri Lankan economy and Its people .
This will reduce the pain and hardship that is currently exper ie nced due to the shortage of foreign currency. In any path forward, it is essential that the government takes measures to consider the difficulties of the poorest and the most vulnerable people in the country and provide them with adequate social security, protection, and relief.
රතන සූත්රය
ශ්රී වජ්රඥාන චරිතය
Dollar crisis poses existential threat to Sri Lana’s publishing industry: authors
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s prevailing dollar shortage is severely impacting the country’s publishing industry which may grind to a halt in March as a result of price hikes and shortages in imported paper and printing materials, a collective of authors said.
Speaking at a press conference organised by Mass Guiding Artists, a collective affiliated with the opposition National People’s Power (NPP), writer Kamal Perera said on Thursday (10) that thousands of jobs in the industry are now in danger as a result of Sri Lanka’s economic crisis.
“There is no paper in the market. There are no dollars to import paper.
“In three months, the price of a ream of paper has gone up by 900 rupees. A ream cost about 5,200 rupees in December; it is now difficult to find one in the market even for 6,200 rupees,” said Perera.
Sri Lanka is currently going through one of the worst economic crises in its history, compounded by a severe dollar shortage and rising inflation that some economists have blamed on excess money printing.
According to the writer, there is also a shortage in plates and other equipment used in printing.
He complained that the government is not interested in finding solutions and doesn’t seem to consider the emerging crisis in the industry to be a serious matter.
“The government has no interest in this whatsoever. It is not in the interest of corrupt leaders to have a learned populace,” said Perera.
He called for slashed taxes and other measures to save the industry.
“In former Prime Minister Sirimavo Bandaranaike’s time, there was a quota for writers and publishers. They can remove taxes for imported paper. Alternately, they can produce paper locally. There are several factories in our country, but they don’t manufacture paper for book printing,” said Perera.
Perera expressed suspicion that the apparent lack of interest on the part of the authorities could be an attempt to outsource book printing to a foreign country.
“We wonder if a proposal will be made that we outsource printing to China, which is a nation that’s very friendly to this government and is a global leader in printing. Or even to Singapore or India,” he said. (Colombo/Feb11/2022)
Sri Lanka ruling party blames crises on external forces, promises prosperity
ECONOMYNEXT – The ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP,) in a high profile campaign rally held in Anuradhapura on Wednesday (09), blamed the pandemic and the opposition for the multiple crises the country is currently grappling with, leaving key issues and alleged policy blunders largely unaddressed.
Speaking at the rally, a seemingly defiant President Gotabaya Rajapaksa claimed that his administration has won back the country’s lost sovereignty and heritage, and invited the public to place their trust in the increasingly unpopular government to deliver on its promises in the remaining three years of its term.
“We come before you having actually done the work. I ask you to join us – join me – and place your trust [in us],” Rajapaksa told what appeared to be a large crowd of party supporters gathered at the Salgadu Public Ground in Anuradhapura.
“In these difficult times, we have afforded you every relief on every occasion. Going forward, as we take these policies ahead, I pledge to you that we will fully implement the Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour that we promised, in the next three years,” he said, to tumultuous applause.
In his uncharacteristically uproarious speech, Rajapaka also promised to increase the income of Sri Lanka’s farmers by 100 percent, though he did not elaborate. Farmers in Anuradhapura and elsewhere have taken to the streets in furious protest of the government’s highly controversial organic fertilizer policy.
“We gave you the fertilizer you needed; we gave you the guaranteed price you wanted. Today you can sell it for 95 rupees. I guarantee to you that I’m committed to doing anything for the farming community,” the president said, noting that his vision for a green economy was aimed at protecting Sri Lanka’s farmers from deadly disease. He also claimed that vested interests, both local and foreign, are actively working towards disrupting the government’s efforts in this regard.
Criticising the previous government, Rajapaksa claimed that then President Mahinda Rajapaksa was robbed of a third term at a time when he, having “saved the country from terrorism”, was engaged in economic development.
“What happened during those five years [of the Yahapalana government]? The security that we had guaranteed was destroyed, which culminated the Easter bombings. The intelligence units were destroyed. War heroes were betrayed. They went to the international community and destroyed this country’s sovereignty. Our nationality and religion were destroyed.
“Buddhist monks were taken to court. Our religion and culture… Look how today Kuragala, the Muhudu Maha Viharaya, and Digavapiya, have once again become our heritage,” he said.
The Rajapaksa administration has faced harsh criticism from Sri Lanka’s Catholic leadership over its alleged unwillingness to bring justice to the 269 victims of the 2019 Easter bombings, with Archbishop of Colombo Malcolm Cardinal Ranjith vowing to take the matter up with the international community. The SLPP has also been met with criticism, particularly by civil society, over its singular emphasis on concerns of the Sinhala Buddhist majority, which critics say is politically motivated.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, who also addressed the gathering, said the SLPP planned to start a new journey from Anuradhapura, the site of previous public rallies that he said had propelled the party to electoral success.
“Every fight we won was started here. Today we start such a journey from Anuradhapura.
“For two years we battled this COVID-19 pandemic. That entire period, we were focused on saving the people from this epidemic,” said the prime minister, questioning the opposition’s criticism of the government’s handling of the epidemic. He accused the opposition of creating doubts among the public over the efficacy of the Chinese-made Sinopharm vaccine – the country’s most widely used COVID-19 jab yet.
“They were able to play around like this because we silently carried out our work while protecting the people. The longer we stay quiet, the harder they try to create chaos in the country,” he said.
PM Rajapaksa also touched on the fertilizer issue, though he stopped short of admitting that the timing of the policy was questionable.
“You know what the farmer’s issue is. (Audience shouts in support). Yes, yes, we know (laughs). We all know, because we too come from farming,” he said.
Rajapaksa blamed the United National Party (UNP), despite governing for decades, were unable to pay the farmers enough in 2015.
“Remember how farmers drank poison because there was no price [guarantee]? The people shouting now, were they there to check on the farmers then? No.
“But what has happened today? The opposition is now shouting everywhere that this government is the sworn enemy of the farmer,” said Rajapaksa.
Issuing a warning to the opposition, the premier said: “They must remember that we too are very used to the streets. We’re used to going on Paada Yathras. We too will come to the street now.”
Among other government ministers who spoke at the rally, State Minister Channa Jayasuma too blamed the country’s economic crisis – one of the worst in its history – on the pandemic.
“We were handed a country with a destroyed economy and society. Just when we were getting ready to start correcting the wrongs made from 2015 to 2019, the whole world was struck by the pandemic. The whole world is at an economic crisis, and a small country like ours cannot bear up,” said Jayasumana.
“COVID is the real reason we couldn’t reshape this ravaged country, and if anyone says otherwise, I think they will need to get their brains checked,” he added.
Meanwhile, Minister of Energy Udaya Gammanpila tweeted earlier on Wednesday that, “entire world was gulped by #Corona. Only few countries are faced with foreign currency scarcity. If #Corona is d cause for d present crisis, entire world should have faced the similar situations. Our economic crisis was caused by the debt burden and aggravated by #Corona.”
https://twitter.com/UPGammanpila/status/1491263594289561601?s=20&t=pT975hdPmocVHGhUWXz1rQ
The factors that experts say led to the current forex crisis , compounded by excess money printing and inflation, was hardly addressed. Jayasumana said the country relied on migrant workers, exports, and tourism to bring in foreign currency.
Although Sri Lankan tourism is on a slow rise, experts say that it will not help solve the forex crisis. Lack of dollars in the country has resulted in several containers worth of essential goods remaining stuck at the Colombo Port, with no dollars to release them.
The party also made several remarks about the country’s “excellent vaccination process.” Transport Minister Pavithra Wanniarachchi said: “Mahinda Rajapaksha won one war for the country. We have won over the pandemic, and Minister Basil Rajapaksha will triumph over the economic war that we are now facing.”
Wanniarachchi, who was Health Minister during the first two waves of the epidemic, also mentioned that the country was on the cusp of “breathing freely” as the pandemic was nearing its end. The government’s own health officials, however, warn that the Omicron variant is on the rise in Sri Lanka, leading to an increase in daily cases.
Several speakers alleged that the opposition had made remarks about the safety of the vaccines that were imported, and caused fear among the population.
“We are among the top ten countries in the world when it comes to vaccine rollouts,” claimed Minister Kanchana Wijesuriya. International reports suggest otherwise, but experts agree that, despite some initial delays, Sri Lanka’s vaccine drive has indeed been commendable.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/world/covid-vaccinations-tracker.html
https://edition.cnn.com/interactive/2021/health/global-covid-vaccinations/
However, few speakers offered workable solutions to the crises the country is engulfed with, though many made loud proclamations of faith that the Rajapaksa trio – namely the president, prime minister and Finance Minister Basil Rajapaka – would soon lead the country into the new era promised in 2019. (Colombo/Feb09/2022)
Sri Lanka spends US$736mn to defend 200 to dollar peg as...
ECONOMYNEXT – Sri Lanka’s foreign reserves sales to commercial banks defend a 200 to the US dollar peg soared to 736 million dollars from September to November 2021 official data shows, forcing money to be printed to maintain a fixed policy interest rate.
In November and December alone 664 million dollars of reserves were sold to commercial banks.
The injection of money after such ‘reserves for imports’ to defend a peg (sterilization of interventions) prevents the contraction of reserve money, prevents a rise in short term interest rates, prevents a required slowdown in private credit and re-ignites demand for imports.
In a remarkable descent in to Mercantilist ideology, calls were made in Sri Lanka to spend more reserves on imports while simultaneously claims were made that a 200 to the US dollar peg was unsustainable.
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Any reserve sales for imports is a defence of the peg, which commits a central bank with a fixed policy rate to print more money through ‘open market operations’, triggering yet more imports.
If reserves are used for imports without allowing the monetary base to fall, sovereign as well as private foreign debt default may become inevitable even if debt is re-structured, analysts have warned.
The injection of money after giving reserves for imports is the hallmark of a soft or unstable peg (now called a ‘flexible’ exchange rate), that trigger currency crises and balance of payments deficits.
A clean float (suspension of convertibility) is required to stop the cycle of sterilized interventions.
Sri Lanka required structurally higher interest rates as soon as the country was locked out of bond markets in 2020 to generate resources to repay debt. However rates were cut in 2020 amid downgrades.
Sri Lanka’s market rates have risen after yield controls were lifted, though mostly three month bills are being bought, and deficit monetization is minimal.
In sterilizing reserves for imports, liquidity is injected into commercial banks (private sector) but to later observers it appears as deficit finance, since money is printed not against private securities but government debt.
For centuries, during the gold standard era, the Bank of England used to operate its discount rate (which was not fixed) against private debt (bankers’ acceptances) which were tradable in the secondary market.
Open market operations as known today was invented by the Federal Reserve in the course of firing the ‘Roaring 20s’ bubble that led to the Great Depression. A part of the bubble involved firing up stocks with margin credit.
In the way Sri Lanka’s central bank engages in reserve sales for debt repayments against newly created Treasury bills it is possible to appropriate reserve for debt repayment without changing rupee reserves in individual banks through a series of back-to-back transactions (no reserve pass-through).
Sri Lanka created a soft-peg in 1950 ending floating short term rates and a fixed exchange rate that had protected the population from a Great Depression and two World Wars. Sri Lanka has reserves worth 11 months of imports when the soft – peg was created.
The UK around the time was facing severe currency troubles due to Keynesianism.
In November the central bank sold 310 million US dollars to commercial banks on a net basis which rose to 353 million US dollars by December.
The interventions are the highest seen since the 2018 currency crisis.
Sri Lanka’s past currency crises up to around 2005, which sent the rupee careening down from 4.70 to the US dollar to around 110 were intensified with sterilized reserve sales to defend a peg, though the crisis may have been initially triggered by budget finance or rural credit.
Amid more discretionary and contradictory monetary policy after the end of a 30-year war, involving a ‘flexible’ exchange rate and ‘flexible’ inflation targeting Sri Lanka has faced currency crises and depreciation in quick succession and the rupee is now at 200 to the US dollar.
Parallel exchange rates are around 248 to the US dollar.
The central bank has also imposed surrender requirement for exporter and remittance dollars, despite the peg being weak and requiring tighter monetary policy. A surrender requirement pushes the currency down through liquidity creation. A reserve sale can strengthen the currency as long as it is not sterilized.
In the nine months to September the central bank bought 228 million dollars on a net basis from commercial banks under a surrender requirement despite a peg having already weakened. (Colombo/Feb08/2022 – Update II)
Sri Lanka ruling party gears up for local govt polls amid...
ECONOMYNEXT – The ruling Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) in a bid to test the pulse of people, possibly via local government polls, is holding its first campaign rally in the ancient city of Anuradhapura amid growing public frustration over government policies.
The rally is taking place despite heightened fears of a COVID-19 resurgence and also at a time when SLPP legislators openly complain about public protests that greet them when they visit their constituencies. The government’s popularity has taken a hit thanks to, among other things, rising inflation and the highly controversial organic fertilizer policy which experts have warned could result in a food shortage.
People across the country have publicly criticized President Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his key ministers, accusing the SLPP-led coalition of bringing back the “era of queues” of the 1970s. Critics also claim that price ceilings imposed by the government have created a raft of commodity shortages on top of an acute foreign exchange shortage.
“We start our campaign rally on February 09 in Anuradhapura,” Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa told a media briefing last week when he was asked about the government’s plan to hold elections.
“That’s our first meeting. That’s a public meeting. Then we will have our women’s conventions over the next two weekends,” he said, adding that the SLPP has so far scheduled meetings to be held in five provinces in the near future.
“We had to follow the health guidelines and thus had to temporarily we had give less priority to political activity. We cannot do that anymore. So we are starting the meetings with the public.”
The SLPP-led coalition’s first rally comes after the government announced a 40-billion-rupee (USD 200 million) compensation scheme for farmers hit by the inorganic fertilizer ban.
It also announced a 229 billion rupee (around USD 1.3 billion) relief package targeting government servants, pensioners, farmers, many of whom are rural folk, political analysts say.
Grassroots level farmer organisations have said the paddy production in the Maha cultivation season was expected to have dropped by around 50 percent due to the government’s failure in providing the required fertilizer on time.
However, Agriculture Minister Mahndanada Aluthgamage has said the drop would only be 10 percent.
Growing dissatisfaction
President Rajapaksa was expected to execute policies that were not implemented by any of his predecessors since the country gained independence from the British colonial rulers.
However, a majority of his tenure in the top office was hit by the COVID-19 pandemic, which the government has said was the main reason for the host of issues the country is currently facing.
However, political analysts say the country is in difficulties due to ad hoc policies that were formulated by a handful of people without consulting all stakeholders.
“Despite the fact that the current crisis could be overcome by far-sighted policies, the government is engaged in pursuing a stupid and destructive policy that leads to exacerbate the crisis and maximise the damage to the country and the people,” Victor Ivan, a political analyst and former Editor of the Ravaya newspaper, wrote in his weekly column on the privately run Daily FT newspaper.
“The government’s policy on the use of fertilizer is one example that can be cited in this connection. The government has created an unprecedented major crisis in agriculture by imposing a ban on import of chemical fertilizers and other chemical inputs used in agriculture.
“The country is being pushed to a point where even rice, which can be considered the staple food, has to be imported. Obviously, there is a real danger of the country facing a severe food shortage and famine,” wrote Ivan.
Opposition parties have said the ban on agro-chemicals, the promotion of a miracle concoction as a precautionary measure for COVID-19 while delaying vaccines, setting price ceilings for rice, sugar, and milk powder that have now resulted queues across the country, and an import ban while keeping interest rates at record low levels show the government’s carelessness when formulating policy.
A fuel shortage that has now resulted in announced and unannounced power cuts has also damaged the current government’s popularity not only among the urban middle class families, butthe rural population who are primarily dependent on cultivation for their livelihood.
Meanwhile, agitation by Catholics over a delay in justice for the 2019 Easter Sunday attacks has also brought into question the government’s credibility, analysts say. The Catholic leadership in Sri Lanka has said it will seek international assistance for justice amid raising doubts over the local probe.
Economic woes
Several policies also hit the import-export trade as Sri Lanka’s forex shortage led to an import ban which has in turn made importers buy dollars from other sources as they are unable to open letters of credits in local banks.
Parallel exchange rates range from 240 to 260 to the US dollar.
In addition to these crises, the government has also failed to address endless demands by trade unions, which has resulted in daily protests inconveniencing thousands.
There are growing calls to go the International Monetary Fund to get comprehensive economic program as amid protests.
Both opposition center-right Samagi Jana Balawegaya and the Marxist Janatha Vimukthi Peremuna (JVP) have demanded an election to test the government’s popularity. The parties have been busy organising their own grassroots level political activities.
A determined Finance Minister Basil Rajapaksa, who is the strategist of the SLPP, said he wants to go for an election sooner rather than later.
“I have a plan to go for elections soon,” the minister said last week.
“We can only go with the existing [election] system. The only election we can hold is this [local government polls],” he said.
“Legally you can’t hold the presidential polls. You can’t hold the parliament polls until two and half a years. The last government had enacted legislation in such a way that we can’t hold the provincial elections soon. We need to make great effort to change it.”
Sources in the ruling party believe that Sri Lanka’s scattered opposition which are still not ready for an election, and the government’s compensation and relief packages could be used as advantages to rally around a new leader aiming for the 2024 presidential polls. (Colombo/Feb09/2022)